Scott Hayes | [email protected]
Local Journalism Initiative Reporter
It doesn鈥檛 matter what the groundhogs say. Expect two more frosty months ahead, and it鈥檚 all thanks to La Ni帽a, says Kyle Foug猫re, meteorologist with Environment and Climate Change Canada (ECCC).
鈥淲e are still in La Ni帽a, and as such, we just had this Arctic air spread over western North America. When you have this Arctic air, it tends to be pretty stubborn. We are expecting the start of February to start off colder than normal.鈥�
The whole of February is actually meant to be colder than normal, with normal for this time of year meaning daytime highs of about -4 C and nighttime lows of around -14 C. Those temperatures might normalize closer to the end of February, however.
March is also going to be colder, and that鈥檚 also thanks to La Ni帽a and how it affects the temperatures of the eastern Pacific Ocean just off the west coast of South America. ECCC meteorologists like to make their seasonal weather predictions based off of that phenomenon called the El Ni帽o Southern Oscillation.
When the water is warmer than normal there, that鈥檚 El Ni帽o. When it鈥檚 colder, that鈥檚 La Ni帽a. Normal is the neutral state.
鈥淎 lot of times, the temperature of the ocean there can have an influence on the jetstream, especially over western North America, but really around the globe even,鈥� Foug猫re said.
This is the third winter in a row that Jasper has had La Ni帽a conditions.
As it is currently, the jetstream is positioned in a way that allows cold air to filter across western North America.
鈥淲hen we have La Ni帽a conditions, we tend to see the jetstream is a little farther west off of the west coast of North America. What that tends to do for us in Western North America or Western Canada is it brings us colder conditions. It's just easier for air to come out of the Arctic and spill over Western Canada, and we tend to have snowier winters.鈥�
La Ni帽a is currently ongoing with these cold temperatures in the Eastern Pacific, though conditions have been warming.
Foug猫re said the ECCC expects that those cold waters will dissipate, and Jasper will move out of La Ni帽a conditions into neutral conditions over the next couple of months. La Ni帽a will no longer have an effect on Jasper by the time that Western Canada moves into spring.
Spring is still coming, but March tends to be the snowiest month for Jasper. For now, Foug猫re expected the most recent cold snap to be short lived, with temperatures likely bumping up to slightly above normal by the end of this week.
As for the groundhogs鈥� predictions, he couldn鈥檛 speculate on what a groundhog would say nor does he think it has any bearing or accuracy in forecasting.
